odds,
Change data releaseKey data points
- Data for
- November 2026
- Release
- 4 Dec 2026, 13:30 UTC
- Middle estimate
- 70,000
- 80% range
- -25,000 to 125,000+
- Most likely
- Above 125,000 19%
- Next release
- –
- Release after
- –
- Updated
- 08:30 UTC delayed 15 min
Market info
- Category
- US economic data
- Source
- Prediction markets
- Frequency
- Every 15 minutes
- Units
- Jobs
Settles on: BLS Employment Situation, change in total nonfarm payroll employment, first print. From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
More data odds
United States unemployment rate →Odds by outcome
| Outcome | Kalshi | Blended |
|---|---|---|
| -25,000 or lower | 10% | 10% |
| -25,000 to 0 | 7% | 7% |
| 0 to 10,000 | 4% | 4% |
| 10,000 to 20,000 | 4% | 4% |
| 20,000 to 30,000 | 4% | 4% |
| 30,000 to 40,000 | 5% | 5% |
| 40,000 to 50,000 | 4% | 4% |
| 50,000 to 60,000 | 5% | 5% |
| 60,000 to 70,000 | 8% | 8% |
| 70,000 to 80,000 | 7% | 7% |
| 80,000 to 90,000 | 7% | 7% |
| 90,000 to 100,000 | 5% | 5% |
| 100,000 to 125,000 | 11% | 11% |
| Above 125,000 | 19% | 19% |
KalshiMarkets
| Market | Weight in blend | 24h volume | Open interest | Settles on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 100% | $0 | $1K | BLS |
Releases ahead
| Data for | Release | Middle estimate | 80% range | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 6 Nov 2026, 13:30 UTC | 50,000 | 0 to 125,000+ | 10,000 to 20,000 |
| November 2026 | 4 Dec 2026, 13:30 UTC | 70,000 | -25,000 to 125,000+ | Above 125,000 |
Common questions
What do prediction markets expect for US nonfarm payrolls for November 2026?
A middle estimate of 70,000, with an 80% chance of -25,000 to 125,000+. The most likely single outcome is Above 125,000, at 19%.
When is US nonfarm payrolls for November 2026 released?
4 Dec 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
How often do the odds update?
This page shows odds delayed by 15 minutes. The Predictions API serves live odds on paid plans.
Are these odds a forecast or advice?
No. They reflect traders' bets, which can change quickly. They are not an official forecast or investment advice.