odds
Change data releaseKey data points
- Chance
- 7%
- Kalshi
- 5%
- Polymarket
- 7%
- Deadline
- 31 Dec 2026
- Days left
- 83 days
- Updated
- 07:47 UTC delayed 15 min
Market info
- Category
- US economic data
- Source
- Prediction markets
- Frequency
- Every 15 minutes
- Units
- Chance, %
Settles on: Two consecutive negative quarters of US real GDP from Q2 2025 to Q4 2026, or an NBER recession call for 2025 or 2026. From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
More data odds
United States GDP growth rate →Markets
| Market | Weight in blend | 24h volume | Open interest | Settles on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Excluded | $187 | $38K | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
| Polymarket | 100% | $5K | – | Bureau of Economic Analysis; NBER |
Kalshi
PolymarketCommon questions
What are the odds of a US recession by the end of 2026?
Prediction markets put the chance at 7%. The market settles on: Two consecutive negative quarters of US real GDP from Q2 2025 to Q4 2026, or an NBER recession call for 2025 or 2026.
Where do these odds come from?
From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
How often do the odds update?
This page shows odds delayed by 15 minutes. The Predictions API serves live odds on paid plans.
Are these odds a forecast or advice?
No. They reflect traders' bets, which can change quickly. They are not an official forecast or investment advice.