odds,
Change data releaseUS CPIUS monthly CPIUS core CPIUS monthly core CPIUS nonfarm payrollsUS unemploymentUS GDP growthUS annual GDP growthUS PPIUK GDP growthGermany GDP growthMexico GDP growthEuro area GDP growthUK CPIUS recession
Change release4.2%80% range 4.1% to 4.3%Middle estimate · release in 28 days
4.2% +18.8 pts4.1% +10.0 ptsover 1 month
Key data points
- Data for
- October 2026
- Release
- 6 Nov 2026, 13:30 UTC
- Middle estimate
- 4.2%
- 80% range
- 4.1% to 4.3%
- Most likely
- 4.2% 41%
- Last official
- 4.2% Sep 2026
- Release after
- 4 Dec 2026, 13:30 UTC
- Updated
- 07:47 UTC delayed 15 min
Market info
- Category
- US economic data
- Source
- Prediction markets
- Frequency
- Every 15 minutes
- Units
- Percent
Settles on: BLS Employment Situation, U-3 unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted, first print. From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
More data odds
United States unemployment rate →Odds by outcome
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blended |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.8% or lower | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| 3.9% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| 4.0% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| 4.1% | 24% | 24% | 24% |
| 4.2% | 43% | 33% | 41% |
| 4.3% | 21% | 22% | 21% |
| 4.4% | 2% | 6% | 2% |
| 4.5% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| Above 4.5% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
Kalshi
PolymarketHighest rate in 2026
| Level | Chance |
|---|---|
| Reaches 10.0% | 1% |
| Reaches 7.0% | 1% |
| Reaches 6.0% | 1% |
| Reaches 5.5% | 2% |
| Reaches 5.0% | 5% |
Markets
| Market | Weight in blend | 24h volume | Open interest | Settles on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 84% | $3K | $42K | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| Polymarket | 16% | $56 | – | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
Releases ahead
| Data for | Release | Middle estimate | 80% range | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2026 | 6 Nov 2026, 13:30 UTC | 4.2% | 4.1% to 4.3% | 4.2% |
| November 2026 | 4 Dec 2026, 13:30 UTC | – | – | 3.7% or lower |
Common questions
What do prediction markets expect for US unemployment for October 2026?
A middle estimate of 4.2%, with an 80% chance of 4.1% to 4.3%. The most likely single outcome is 4.2%, at 41%.
When is US unemployment for October 2026 released?
6 Nov 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
How often do the odds update?
This page shows odds delayed by 15 minutes. The Predictions API serves live odds on paid plans.
Are these odds a forecast or advice?
No. They reflect traders' bets, which can change quickly. They are not an official forecast or investment advice.