odds,
Change data releaseUS CPIUS monthly CPIUS core CPIUS monthly core CPIUS nonfarm payrollsUS unemploymentUS GDP growthUS annual GDP growthUS PPIUK GDP growthGermany GDP growthMexico GDP growthEuro area GDP growthUK CPIUS recession
Change release3.5%80% range 2.5% to 4.0%+Middle estimate · release in 20 days
Above 3.0% to 3.5% +14.5 ptsAbove 4.0% +8.0 ptsover 1 month
Key data points
- Data for
- Q3 2026
- Release
- 29 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC
- Middle estimate
- 3.5%
- 80% range
- 2.5% to 4.0%+
- Most likely
- Above 3.0% to 3.5% 30%
- Next release
- Q4 2026
- Release after
- 28 Jan 2027, market close
- Updated
- 07:46 UTC delayed 15 min
Market info
- Category
- US economic data
- Source
- Prediction markets
- Frequency
- Every 15 minutes
- Units
- Percent
Settles on: BEA real GDP, seasonally adjusted annualised quarterly growth, advance estimate. From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
More data odds
United States GDP growth rate →Odds by outcome
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blended |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0% or lower | 1% | – | 1% |
| Above 0.0% to 0.5% | 1% | – | 1% |
| Above 0.5% to 1.0% | 3% | – | 3% |
| Above 1.0% to 1.5% | 3% | – | 3% |
| Above 1.5% to 2.0% | 2% | – | 2% |
| Above 2.0% to 2.5% | 12% | – | 12% |
| Above 2.5% to 3.0% | 16% | – | 16% |
| Above 3.0% to 3.5% | 30% | – | 30% |
| Above 3.5% to 4.0% | 12% | – | 12% |
| Above 4.0% | 23% | – | 23% |
Kalshi
PolymarketMarkets
| Market | Weight in blend | 24h volume | Open interest | Settles on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 100% | $799 | $78K | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
| Polymarket | Excluded | $696 | – | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
Releases ahead
| Data for | Release | Middle estimate | 80% range | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 29 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC | 3.5% | 2.5% to 4.0%+ | Above 3.0% to 3.5% |
| Q4 2026 | 28 Jan 2027, market close | 2.5% | 0.5% to 4.0% | Above 2.0% to 2.5% |
| Q1 2027 | 29 Apr 2027, market close | 2.5% | 0.0% to 4.0% | Above 2.0% to 2.5% |
| Q2 2027 | 29 Jul 2027, market close | 2.5% | 0.0% to 4.0% | Above 2.0% to 2.5% |
Common questions
What do prediction markets expect for US GDP growth for Q3 2026?
A middle estimate of 3.5%, with an 80% chance of 2.5% to 4.0%+. The most likely single outcome is Above 3.0% to 3.5%, at 30%.
When is US GDP growth for Q3 2026 released?
29 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Where do these odds come from?
From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
How often do the odds update?
This page shows odds delayed by 15 minutes. The Predictions API serves live odds on paid plans.
Are these odds a forecast or advice?
No. They reflect traders' bets, which can change quickly. They are not an official forecast or investment advice.