rate odds, 3 Nov 2026
Change central bankFederal ReserveEuropean Central BankBank of EnglandBank of JapanReserve Bank of AustraliaBank of CanadaBank IndonesiaReserve Bank of New ZealandCentral Bank of BrazilBank of MexicoBank of Russia
Federal Reserve
European Central Bank
Bank of Japan
Bank of Canada
Bank Indonesia
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Central Bank of Brazil
Bank of Mexico
Bank of Russia82%No change · +17 pts from a week agoMost likely outcome · decision in 25 days
No change +62.0 ptsRise 25 bps −3.6 ptssince 29 Sep
Key data points
- Meeting
- 3 Nov 2026
- Decision in
- 25 days
- Chance of a cut
- 1%
- Chance of a rise
- 17%
- Expected move
- +4 bps
- Total by then
- +4 bps
- Next meeting
- –
- Updated
- 07:46 UTC delayed 15 min
Market info
- Category
- Central bank decision
- Source
- Prediction markets
- Frequency
- Every 15 minutes
- Units
- Chance, %
From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
More rate odds
Prediction market odds →Odds by outcome
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blended | 1-week change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut of 50 bps or more | 1% | <1% | <1% | −1 pts |
| Cut of 25 bps | 1% | <1% | 1% | −2 pts |
| No change | 81% | 83% | 82% | +17 pts |
| Rise of 25 bps | 16% | 16% | 16% | −14 pts |
| Rise of 50 bps or more | 1% | 1% | 1% | −1 pts |
Kalshi
PolymarketMarkets
| Market | Weight in blend | 24h volume | Open interest | Settles on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 35% | $160 | $6K | Reserve Bank of Australia |
| Polymarket | 65% | $385 | – | Reserve Bank of Australia |
Meetings ahead
| Meeting | Cut | No change | Rise | Expected move | Total by then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2026 | 1% | 82% | 17% | +4 bps | +4 bps |
Common questions
What are the odds of an RBA rate cut on 3 Nov 2026?
Prediction markets put the chance of a cut at 1%, no change at 82% and a rise at 17%. On average, they expect a rise of 4 basis points.
Where do these odds come from?
From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
How often do the odds update?
This page shows odds delayed by 15 minutes. The Predictions API serves live odds on paid plans.
Are these odds a forecast or advice?
No. They reflect traders' bets, which can change quickly. They are not an official forecast or investment advice.