rate odds,
Change central bankFederal ReserveEuropean Central BankBank of EnglandBank of JapanReserve Bank of AustraliaBank of CanadaBank IndonesiaReserve Bank of New ZealandCentral Bank of BrazilBank of MexicoBank of Russia
Change meeting
Federal Reserve
European Central Bank
Bank of Japan
Reserve Bank of Australia
Bank Indonesia
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Central Bank of Brazil
Bank of Mexico
Bank of Russia71%No change · +6 pts from a week agoMost likely outcome · decision in 19 days
No change −15.3 ptsRise 25 bps +9.5 ptsover 1 month
Key data points
- Meeting
- 28 Oct 2026
- Decision in
- 19 days
- Chance of a cut
- 6%
- Chance of a rise
- 23%
- Expected move
- +4 bps
- Total by then
- +4 bps
- Next meeting
- 9 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 07:46 UTC delayed 15 min
Market info
- Category
- Central bank decision
- Source
- Prediction markets
- Frequency
- Every 15 minutes
- Units
- Chance, %
From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
More rate odds
Prediction market odds →Bank of Canada rate rise in 2026A rise this year77%
Fed28 Oct 2026 · No change83%ECB29 Oct 2026 · No change94%Bank of England5 Nov 2026 · Rise90%Odds by outcome
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blended | 1-week change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut of 50 bps or more | <1% | <1% | <1% | unchanged |
| Cut of 25 bps | 10% | <1% | 6% | +6 pts |
| No change | 66% | 79% | 71% | +6 pts |
| Rise of 25 bps | 22% | 21% | 22% | −12 pts |
| Rise of 50 bps or more | 2% | <1% | 1% | +1 pts |
Kalshi
PolymarketMarkets
| Market | Weight in blend | 24h volume | Open interest | Settles on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 59% | $2K | $43K | Bank of Canada |
| Polymarket | 41% | $2K | – | Bank of Canada |
Meetings ahead
| Meeting | Cut | No change | Rise | Expected move | Total by then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | 6% | 71% | 23% | +4 bps | +4 bps |
| 9 Dec 2026 | 3% | 49% | 49% | +11 bps | +16 bps |
Common questions
What are the odds of a Bank of Canada rate cut on 28 Oct 2026?
Prediction markets put the chance of a cut at 6%, no change at 71% and a rise at 23%. On average, they expect a rise of 4 basis points.
When is the next Bank of Canada meeting after that?
9 Dec 2026. Markets put the chance of no change there at 49%.
Where do these odds come from?
From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
How often do the odds update?
This page shows odds delayed by 15 minutes. The Predictions API serves live odds on paid plans.
Are these odds a forecast or advice?
No. They reflect traders' bets, which can change quickly. They are not an official forecast or investment advice.