rate odds, 4 Nov 2026
Change central bankFederal ReserveEuropean Central BankBank of EnglandBank of JapanReserve Bank of AustraliaBank of CanadaBank IndonesiaReserve Bank of New ZealandCentral Bank of BrazilBank of MexicoBank of Russia
Federal Reserve
European Central Bank
Bank of Japan
Reserve Bank of Australia
Bank of Canada
Bank Indonesia
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Bank of Mexico
Bank of Russia88%Cut of 25 bps · +21 pts from a week agoMost likely outcome · decision in 26 days
Cut 25 bps +67.9 ptsCut 50+ bps −13.3 ptssince 17 Sep
Key data points
- Meeting
- 4 Nov 2026
- Decision in
- 26 days
- Chance of a cut
- 95%
- Chance of a rise
- 1%
- Expected move
- −25 bps
- Total by then
- −25 bps
- Next meeting
- –
- Updated
- 07:46 UTC delayed 15 min
Market info
- Category
- Central bank decision
- Source
- Prediction markets
- Frequency
- Every 15 minutes
- Units
- Chance, %
From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
More rate odds
Prediction market odds →Odds by outcome
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blended | 1-week change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut of 50 bps or more | 32% | 7% | 7% | +1 pts |
| Cut of 25 bps | 64% | 88% | 88% | +21 pts |
| No change | 3% | 4% | 4% | −20 pts |
| Rise of 25 bps | <1% | 1% | 1% | −1 pts |
| Rise of 50 bps or more | 1% | <1% | <1% | −1 pts |
Kalshi
PolymarketMarkets
| Market | Weight in blend | 24h volume | Open interest | Settles on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Excluded | $0 | $381 | Central Bank of Brazil |
| Polymarket | 100% | $3K | – | Central Bank of Brazil |
Meetings ahead
| Meeting | Cut | No change | Rise | Expected move | Total by then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov 2026 | 95% | 4% | 1% | −25 bps | −25 bps |
Common questions
What are the odds of a Central Bank of Brazil rate cut on 4 Nov 2026?
Prediction markets put the chance of a cut at 95%, no change at 4% and a rise at 1%. On average, they expect a cut of 25 basis points.
Where do these odds come from?
From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
How often do the odds update?
This page shows odds delayed by 15 minutes. The Predictions API serves live odds on paid plans.
Are these odds a forecast or advice?
No. They reflect traders' bets, which can change quickly. They are not an official forecast or investment advice.