rate odds,
Change central bankFederal ReserveEuropean Central BankBank of EnglandBank of JapanReserve Bank of AustraliaBank of CanadaBank IndonesiaReserve Bank of New ZealandCentral Bank of BrazilBank of MexicoBank of Russia
Change meeting
Federal Reserve
Bank of Japan
Reserve Bank of Australia
Bank of Canada
Bank Indonesia
Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Central Bank of Brazil
Bank of Mexico
Bank of Russia94%No change · +30 pts from a week agoMost likely outcome · decision in 20 days
No change +67.5 ptsRise 25 bps −36.7 ptssince 10 Sep
Key data points
- Meeting
- 29 Oct 2026
- Decision in
- 20 days
- Chance of a cut
- <1%
- Chance of a rise
- 6%
- Expected move
- +2 bps
- Total by then
- +2 bps
- Next meeting
- 17 Dec 2026
- Updated
- 07:46 UTC delayed 15 min
Market info
- Category
- Central bank decision
- Source
- Prediction markets
- Frequency
- Every 15 minutes
- Units
- Chance, %
From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
More rate odds
Prediction market odds →Odds by outcome
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blended | 1-week change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut of 50 bps or more | 10% | <1% | <1% | −11 pts |
| Cut of 25 bps | <1% | <1% | <1% | −1 pts |
| No change | 84% | 94% | 94% | +30 pts |
| Rise of 25 bps | 5% | 6% | 6% | −17 pts |
| Rise of 50 bps or more | <1% | <1% | <1% | −1 pts |
Kalshi
PolymarketMarkets
| Market | Weight in blend | 24h volume | Open interest | Settles on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Excluded | $403 | $6K | European Central Bank |
| Polymarket | 100% | $22K | – | European Central Bank |
Meetings ahead
| Meeting | Cut | No change | Rise | Expected move | Total by then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct 2026 | <1% | 94% | 6% | +2 bps | +2 bps |
| 17 Dec 2026 | 3% | 19% | 78% | +19 bps | +21 bps |
Common questions
What are the odds of an ECB rate cut on 29 Oct 2026?
Prediction markets put the chance of a cut at 0%, no change at 94% and a rise at 6%. On average, they expect a rise of 2 basis points.
When is the next ECB meeting after that?
17 Dec 2026. Markets put the chance of no change there at 19%.
Where do these odds come from?
From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
How often do the odds update?
This page shows odds delayed by 15 minutes. The Predictions API serves live odds on paid plans.
Are these odds a forecast or advice?
No. They reflect traders' bets, which can change quickly. They are not an official forecast or investment advice.