odds, 2026
Change data releaseUS CPIUS monthly CPIUS core CPIUS monthly core CPIUS nonfarm payrollsUS unemploymentUS GDP growthUS annual GDP growthUS PPIUK GDP growthGermany GDP growthMexico GDP growthEuro area GDP growthUK CPIUS recession
2.4%80% range 2.4%+Middle estimate · market closes in 111 days
Above 1.9% to 2.4% +6.2 ptsAbove 2.4% +39.9 ptsover 1 month
Key data points
- Data for
- 2026
- Market closes
- 28 Jan 2027
- Middle estimate
- 2.4%
- 80% range
- 2.4%+
- Most likely
- Above 1.9% to 2.4% 50%
- Next release
- –
- Release after
- –
- Updated
- 07:48 UTC delayed 15 min
Market info
- Category
- US economic data
- Source
- Prediction markets
- Frequency
- Every 15 minutes
- Units
- Percent
Settles on: US real GDP growth for the year, seasonally adjusted, as first reported in BEA's fourth-quarter advance estimate. From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
More data odds
United States GDP growth rate →Odds by outcome
| Outcome | Polymarket | Blended |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% or lower | <1% | <1% |
| Above 0.4% to 0.9% | <1% | <1% |
| Above 0.9% to 1.4% | <1% | <1% |
| Above 1.4% to 1.9% | 2% | 2% |
| Above 1.9% to 2.4% | 50% | 50% |
| Above 2.4% | 48% | 48% |
PolymarketMarkets
| Market | Weight in blend | 24h volume | Open interest | Settles on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 100% | – | – | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
Common questions
What do prediction markets expect for US annual GDP growth for 2026?
A middle estimate of 2.4%, with an 80% chance of 2.4%+. The most likely single outcome is Above 1.9% to 2.4%, at 50%.
Where do these odds come from?
From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
How often do the odds update?
This page shows odds delayed by 15 minutes. The Predictions API serves live odds on paid plans.
Are these odds a forecast or advice?
No. They reflect traders' bets, which can change quickly. They are not an official forecast or investment advice.