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European Central Bank
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Bank of RussiaKey data points
- Meeting
- 27 Jan 2027
- Decision in
- 110 days
- Chance of a cut
- 3%
- Chance of a rise
- 33%
- Expected move
- +8 bps
- Total by then
- +31 bps
- Next meeting
- 17 Mar 2027
- Updated
- 08:54 UTC delayed 15 min
Market info
- Category
- Central bank decision
- Source
- Prediction markets
- Frequency
- Every 15 minutes
- Units
- Chance, %
From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
More rate odds
Prediction market odds →Odds by outcome
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blended | 1-week change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cut of 50 bps or more | <1% | 1% | 1% | unchanged |
| Cut of 25 bps | 2% | 2% | 2% | unchanged |
| No change | 61% | 64% | 64% | +16 pts |
| Rise of 25 bps | 35% | 31% | 31% | −16 pts |
| Rise of 50 bps or more | 1% | 1% | 1% | unchanged |
Kalshi
PolymarketNext rate cut
| Cut by | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blended |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 meeting | – | 1% | 1% |
| 9 Dec 2026 meeting | – | 3% | 3% |
| 31 Dec 2026 | 6% | 3% | 3% |
| 27 Jan 2027 meeting | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| 17 Mar 2027 meeting | 6% | 17% | 15% |
| 28 Apr 2027 meeting | 6% | 33% | 28% |
| 9 Jun 2027 meeting | 6% | 37% | 32% |
| 30 Jun 2027 | 22% | 37% | 34% |
| 28 Jul 2027 meeting | 22% | 51% | 46% |
| 31 Dec 2027 | 38% | 51% | 48% |
| 30 Jun 2028 | 63% | 51% | 52% |
| 31 Dec 2028 | 77% | 51% | 55% |
| No cut by 31 Dec 2028 | – | – | 45% |
Other Fed markets
| Market | Most likely | Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Rate at the end of 2026 | 4.00% to 4.25% | 69% |
| Rate at the end of 2027 | 3.75% to 4.00% | 13% |
| Rate cuts in 2026 | None | 96% |
| Rate rises in 2026 | 2 rises | 69% |
| Emergency cut before 2027 | No | 96% |
Rate levels before 2027
| Level | Chance |
|---|---|
| Reaches 5.50% | 3% |
| Reaches 5.25% | 3% |
| Reaches 5.00% | 3% |
| Reaches 4.75% | 7% |
| Reaches 4.50% | 10% |
| Reaches 4.25% | 75% |
| Falls to 3.25% | 2% |
Markets
| Market | Weight in blend | 24h volume | Open interest | Settles on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Excluded | $171 | $32K | Federal Reserve |
| Polymarket | 100% | $7K | – | Federal Reserve |
Meetings ahead
| Meeting | Cut | No change | Rise | Expected move | Total by then |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | 1% | 83% | 16% | +4 bps | +4 bps |
| 9 Dec 2026 | 1% | 22% | 76% | +19 bps | +23 bps |
| 27 Jan 2027 | 3% | 64% | 33% | +8 bps | +31 bps |
| 17 Mar 2027 | 9% | 40% | 51% | +10 bps | +41 bps |
Common questions
What are the odds of a Fed rate cut on 27 Jan 2027?
Prediction markets put the chance of a cut at 3%, no change at 64% and a rise at 33%. On average, they expect a rise of 8 basis points.
When is the next Fed meeting after that?
9 Dec 2026. Markets put the chance of no change there at 22%.
When will the Fed next cut rates?
Prediction markets see a cut as more likely than not by 30 Jun 2028, at 52%.
Where do these odds come from?
From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
How often do the odds update?
This page shows odds delayed by 15 minutes. The Predictions API serves live odds on paid plans.
Are these odds a forecast or advice?
No. They reflect traders' bets, which can change quickly. They are not an official forecast or investment advice.