price odds,
Change commodityChange closeGet live price odds for gold by API
GET /v1/predictions/scalar/xau-settle-2026-10-13t2100z
// webhook: { "type": "prediction.event.settled" }Paid plans give you live odds for gold prices at fixed times and highs or lows over a period. Get a webhook when a market settles.
Get an API keyKey data points
- Close
- 13 Oct 2026 17:00 New York
- Closes
- tomorrow
- Middle estimate
- $4,174
- 80% range
- $4,124 to $4,214
- Most likely
- $4,164 to $4,174 13%
- Next close
- 16 Oct 2026
- Closes higher on 13 Oct
- 51%
- Updated
- 12 Oct 2026, 23:50 UTC · delayed 15 min
Market info
- Category
- Metals
- Source
- Prediction markets
- Frequency
- Every 15 minutes
- Units
- US dollars per troy ounce
Each close settles on the gold price at 17:00 New York time. From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
More commodity odds
Prediction market odds →Odds by outcome
| Price at 17:00 | Kalshi |
|---|---|
| Below $4,114 | 5% |
| $4,114 to $4,124 | 3% |
| $4,124 to $4,134 | 5% |
| $4,134 to $4,144 | 5% |
| $4,144 to $4,154 | 10% |
| $4,154 to $4,164 | 11% |
| $4,164 to $4,174 | 13% |
| $4,174 to $4,184 | 12% |
| $4,184 to $4,194 | 13% |
| $4,194 to $4,204 | 11% |
| $4,204 to $4,214 | 5% |
| $4,214 to $4,224 | 4% |
| Above $4,224 | 5% |
KalshiHigh and low
| Gold | Week to 16 Oct | October 2026 | By end of 2026 (futures) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reaches $5,000 | – | – | 21% |
| Reaches $4,600 | – | 6% | – |
| Reaches $4,500 | 1% | 14% | – |
| Reaches $4,400 | 5% | 26% | – |
| Reaches $4,350 | 7% | – | – |
| Reaches $4,300 | 18% | 54% | – |
| Reaches $4,250 | 41% | – | – |
| Reaches $4,200 | 75% | 85% | – |
| Falls to $4,150 | 78% | – | – |
| Falls to $4,100 | 43% | 69% | – |
| Falls to $4,050 | 19% | – | – |
| Falls to $4,000 | 8% | 37% | – |
| Falls to $3,950 | 5% | – | – |
| Falls to $3,900 | 2% | 16% | – |
| Falls to $3,800 | – | 6% | – |
| Falls to $3,500 | – | – | 12% |
Markets
| Market | Prices | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Close on 13 Oct 2026 | $687 | $307 |
| Polymarket | Week to 16 Oct high and low | $11K | – |
| Polymarket | October 2026 high and low | $18K | – |
| Polymarket | By end of 2026 (futures) high and low | $15K | – |
| Polymarket | Up or down at close | $311 | – |
PolymarketCloses ahead
| Close | Middle estimate | 80% range | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct 2026 | $4,174 | $4,124 to $4,214 | $4,164 to $4,174 |
| 16 Oct 2026 | $4,174 | $4,048 to $4,288 | $4,148 to $4,168 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $4,176 | $3,913 to $4,433 | $4,193 to $4,233 |
Common questions
What do prediction markets expect for the gold price on 13 Oct 2026?
A middle estimate of $4,174 at 17:00 New York time, with an 80% chance of $4,124 to $4,214. The most likely range is $4,164 to $4,174, at 13%.
Will gold reach $4,300 in October 2026?
Prediction markets give it a 54% chance.
Where do these odds come from?
From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
How often do the odds update?
This page shows odds delayed 15 min. The Predictions API serves live odds on paid plans.
Are these odds a forecast or advice?
No. They reflect traders' bets, which can change quickly. They are not an official forecast or investment advice.