price odds,
Change commodityChange close$4,19480% range $4,122 to $4,262Middle estimate at 17:00 New York time · closes today
Middle estimate +1.2%since 2 Oct
Key data points
- Close
- 9 Oct 2026 17:00 New York
- Closes
- today
- Middle estimate
- $4,194
- 80% range
- $4,122 to $4,262
- Most likely
- $4,182 to $4,202 22%
- Next close
- 30 Oct 2026
- Reaches $4,300 in October
- 56%
- Updated
- 07:47 UTC delayed 15 min
Market info
- Category
- Metals
- Source
- Prediction markets
- Frequency
- Every 15 minutes
- Units
- US dollars per troy ounce
Each close settles on the gold price at 17:00 New York time. From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
More commodity odds
Prediction market odds →Odds by outcome
| Price at 17:00 | Kalshi |
|---|---|
| Below $4,102 | 2% |
| $4,102 to $4,122 | 4% |
| $4,122 to $4,142 | 5% |
| $4,142 to $4,162 | 8% |
| $4,162 to $4,182 | 19% |
| $4,182 to $4,202 | 22% |
| $4,202 to $4,222 | 19% |
| $4,222 to $4,242 | 12% |
| $4,242 to $4,262 | 6% |
| $4,262 to $4,282 | 3% |
| Above $4,282 | 2% |
KalshiHigh and low
| Gold | Week to 9 Oct | October 2026 | By end of 2026 (futures) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reaches $6,000 | – | – | 5% |
| Reaches $5,000 | – | – | 21% |
| Reaches $4,600 | – | 6% | – |
| Reaches $4,500 | – | 14% | – |
| Reaches $4,400 | 2% | 31% | – |
| Reaches $4,300 | 10% | 56% | – |
| Reaches $4,250 | 15% | – | – |
| Falls to $4,100 | 5% | 64% | – |
| Falls to $4,000 | 3% | 37% | – |
| Falls to $3,900 | 1% | 16% | – |
| Falls to $3,800 | <1% | 6% | – |
| Falls to $3,500 | – | – | 12% |
Markets
| Market | Prices | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Close on 9 Oct 2026 | $11K | $10K |
| Polymarket | Week to 9 Oct high and low | $7K | – |
| Polymarket | October 2026 high and low | $21K | – |
| Polymarket | By end of 2026 (futures) high and low | $33K | – |
PolymarketCloses ahead
| Close | Middle estimate | 80% range | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | $4,194 | $4,122 to $4,262 | $4,182 to $4,202 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $4,191 | $3,913 to $4,473 | $4,153 to $4,193 |
Common questions
What do prediction markets expect for the gold price on 9 Oct 2026?
A middle estimate of $4,194 at 17:00 New York time, with an 80% chance of $4,122 to $4,262. The most likely range is $4,182 to $4,202, at 22%.
Will gold reach $4,300 in October 2026?
Prediction markets give it a 56% chance.
Where do these odds come from?
From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
How often do the odds update?
This page shows odds delayed by 15 minutes. The Predictions API serves live odds on paid plans.
Are these odds a forecast or advice?
No. They reflect traders' bets, which can change quickly. They are not an official forecast or investment advice.