price odds,
Change commodityChange close$4,19180% range $3,913 to $4,473Middle estimate at 17:00 New York time · closes in 21 days
Middle estimate +0.4%since 1 Oct
Key data points
- Close
- 30 Oct 2026 17:00 New York
- Closes
- in 21 days
- Middle estimate
- $4,191
- 80% range
- $3,913 to $4,473
- Most likely
- $4,153 to $4,193 11%
- Next close
- –
- Reaches $4,300 in October
- 67%
- Updated
- 08:32 UTC delayed 15 min
Market info
- Category
- Metals
- Source
- Prediction markets
- Frequency
- Every 15 minutes
- Units
- US dollars per troy ounce
Each close settles on the gold price at 17:00 New York time. From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
More commodity odds
Prediction market odds →Odds by outcome
| Price at 17:00 | Kalshi |
|---|---|
| $3,353 or lower | 4% |
| $3,353 to $3,393 | <1% |
| $3,393 to $3,433 | <1% |
| $3,433 to $3,473 | <1% |
| $3,473 to $3,513 | <1% |
| $3,513 to $3,553 | <1% |
| $3,553 to $3,593 | <1% |
| $3,593 to $3,633 | <1% |
| $3,633 to $3,673 | <1% |
| $3,673 to $3,713 | <1% |
| $3,713 to $3,753 | <1% |
| $3,753 to $3,793 | <1% |
| $3,793 to $3,833 | 1% |
| $3,833 to $3,873 | 2% |
| $3,873 to $3,913 | 2% |
| $3,913 to $3,953 | 3% |
| $3,953 to $3,993 | 10% |
| $3,993 to $4,033 | <1% |
| $4,033 to $4,073 | 5% |
| $4,073 to $4,113 | 7% |
| $4,113 to $4,153 | 8% |
| $4,153 to $4,193 | 11% |
| $4,193 to $4,233 | 7% |
| $4,233 to $4,273 | 8% |
| $4,273 to $4,313 | 8% |
| $4,313 to $4,353 | 7% |
| $4,353 to $4,393 | 6% |
| $4,393 to $4,433 | 5% |
| Above $4,433 | 11% |
KalshiHigh and low
| Gold | Week to 9 Oct | October 2026 | By end of 2026 (futures) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reaches $6,000 | – | – | 5% |
| Reaches $5,000 | – | – | 21% |
| Reaches $4,600 | – | 6% | – |
| Reaches $4,500 | – | 14% | – |
| Reaches $4,400 | 3% | 31% | – |
| Reaches $4,300 | 9% | 67% | – |
| Reaches $4,250 | 16% | – | – |
| Falls to $4,100 | 5% | 65% | – |
| Falls to $4,000 | 3% | 37% | – |
| Falls to $3,900 | <1% | 16% | – |
| Falls to $3,800 | <1% | 6% | – |
| Falls to $3,500 | – | – | 12% |
Markets
| Market | Prices | 24h volume | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Close on 30 Oct 2026 | $330 | $4K |
| Polymarket | Week to 9 Oct high and low | $7K | – |
| Polymarket | October 2026 high and low | $21K | – |
| Polymarket | By end of 2026 (futures) high and low | $29K | – |
PolymarketCloses ahead
| Close | Middle estimate | 80% range | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | $4,197 | $4,142 to $4,262 | $4,182 to $4,202 |
| 30 Oct 2026 | $4,191 | $3,913 to $4,473 | $4,153 to $4,193 |
Common questions
What do prediction markets expect for the gold price on 30 Oct 2026?
A middle estimate of $4,191 at 17:00 New York time, with an 80% chance of $3,913 to $4,473. The most likely range is $4,153 to $4,193, at 11%.
Will gold reach $4,300 in October 2026?
Prediction markets give it a 67% chance.
Where do these odds come from?
From prediction markets, where traders buy and sell contracts on what will happen. Narwhal blends their prices into one probability for each outcome.
How often do the odds update?
This page shows odds delayed by 15 minutes. The Predictions API serves live odds on paid plans.
Are these odds a forecast or advice?
No. They reflect traders' bets, which can change quickly. They are not an official forecast or investment advice.