بيانات تاريخية Polymarket وأسواق التنبؤ: سجل الاحتمالات ونتائج الأحداث المسوّاة للبحث

curl -s -H "Authorization: Bearer $NARWHAL_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.narwhalapi.com/v1/predictions/events?topic=usa-fed&status=settled&limit=1"

{
  "events": [
    {
      "event_id": "usa-fed-2026-10",
      "question": "Federal Reserve rate decision, 28 October 2026",
      "status": "settled",
      "closes_at": "2026-10-28T17:59:00Z",
      "resolves_at": "2026-10-28T18:00:00Z",
      "release_id": "ae2a77cc-3b5b-4541-a060-3bc2ea1145d9",
      "result": {
        "final": true,
        "settled_at": "2026-10-28T20:01:40Z"
      },
      "topic_id": "usa-fed",
      "shape": "scalar"
    }
  ],
  "next_cursor": null
}

curl -s -H "Authorization: Bearer $NARWHAL_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.narwhalapi.com/v1/predictions/scalar/usa-fed-2026-10"

{
  "event_id": "usa-fed-2026-10",
  "topic_id": "usa-fed",
  "question": "Federal Reserve rate decision, 28 October 2026",
  "status": "settled",
  "closes_at": "2026-10-28T17:59:00Z",
  "resolves_at": "2026-10-28T18:00:00Z",
  "as_of": "2026-10-28T17:58:00Z",
  "result": {
    "final": true,
    "settled_at": "2026-10-28T20:01:40Z",
    "venues": [
      {
        "venue": "kalshi",
        "final": true,
        "settled_at": "2026-10-28T18:06:30Z",
        "markets": [
          {
            "market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0",
            "outcome": "yes",
            "value": "1"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "venue": "polymarket",
        "final": true,
        "settled_at": "2026-10-28T20:01:40Z",
        "markets": [
          {
            "market_id": "2589812",
            "outcome": "Yes",
            "value": "1"
          }
        ]
      }
    ]
  },
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "key": "hold",
      "label": "No change",
      "lower": "-12.5",
      "upper": "12.5",
      "probability": "0.9622",
      "quotes": [
        {
          "venue": "kalshi",
          "probability": "0.9602",
          "market_ids": [
            "KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0"
          ]
        },
        {
          "venue": "polymarket",
          "probability": "0.9686",
          "market_ids": [
            "111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462682726460921782993748"
          ]
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "above": []
}

curl -s -H "Authorization: Bearer $NARWHAL_API_KEY" \
  "https://api.narwhalapi.com/v1/predictions/binary/usa-recession-2026/history?start=2026-10-01T00:00:00Z&end=2026-10-08T00:00:00Z&interval=1d"

{
  "backfill_venue": "polymarket",
  "series": [
    {
      "key": "yes",
      "active_from": "2026-10-01T00:00:00Z",
      "bars": [
        {
          "timestamp": "2026-10-04T00:00:00Z",
          "close": "0.0850"
        },
        {
          "timestamp": "2026-10-05T00:00:00Z",
          "open": "0.0750",
          "high": "0.0750",
          "low": "0.0750",
          "close": "0.0750"
        }
      ]
    }
  ],
  "next_cursor": null
}

import json
import os
import urllib.parse
import urllib.request

def get(path):
    req = urllib.request.Request(
        "https://api.narwhalapi.com" + path,
        headers={"Authorization": "Bearer " + os.environ["NARWHAL_API_KEY"]},
    )
    with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=30) as r:
        return json.load(r)

def history(event_id, start, end, interval="1d"):
    bars, cursor = {}, None
    while True:
        query = {"start": start, "end": end, "interval": interval}
        if cursor:
            query["cursor"] = cursor
        page = get(f"/v1/predictions/scalar/{event_id}/history?" + urllib.parse.urlencode(query))
        for series in page["series"]:
            bars.setdefault(series["key"], []).extend(series["bars"])
        cursor = page["next_cursor"]
        if not cursor:
            return bars

event = get("/v1/predictions/scalar/usa-fed-2026-10")
print(event["status"], "final:", event["result"]["final"])

# The winning outcome: the Kalshi market that settled to yes.
yes = {m["market_id"] for v in event["result"]["venues"] if v["venue"] == "kalshi"
       for m in v["markets"] if m["outcome"] == "yes"}
winner = [o["key"] for o in event["outcomes"] for q in o["quotes"]
          if yes & set(q["market_ids"])]
print("winner:", winner)

bars = history("usa-fed-2026-10", "2026-10-21T00:00:00Z", "2026-10-29T00:00:00Z")
for bar in bars[winner[0]]:
    print(bar["timestamp"][:10], bar["close"])